摘要 :
Purpose - This paper aims to examine the effects of monetary policy and foreign shocks on output, inflation and exchange rate in Egypt. Design/methodology/approach - This paper studies the effects of monetary policy and foreign sh...
展开
Purpose - This paper aims to examine the effects of monetary policy and foreign shocks on output, inflation and exchange rate in Egypt. Design/methodology/approach - This paper studies the effects of monetary policy and foreign shocks on output, inflation and exchange rate by using non-recursive SVAR model and quarterly data. Findings - First, the empirical results reveal that monetary policy shocks, through changes in interest rate or money supply, have a significant effect on output, inflation and exchange rate in Egypt. Second, the world oil prices and foreign output have significant impacts on output, inflation and exchange rate in Egypt, while foreign interest rate has a significant effect on domestic output and inflation. Research limitations/implications - The limitation of the study is examining one country only. Practical implications - The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) should adjust interest rate to stabilize inflation, output and exchange rate. By stabilizing inflation, output and exchange rate, the CBE would be able to achieve the ultimate targets of monetary policy, namely, price stability and economic growth. Social implications - It is important for the CBE because it shows the significant effect of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables in Egypt. Also, it is important for people because it shows the important role for the CBE. Originality/value - It is important for the CBE because it examines the effect of monetary policy and foreign shocks on macroeconomic variables.
收起
摘要 :
This special issue, "Banking in Macroeconomic Theory and Policy," explores a problem that has occupied to varying degrees several recent generations of economists: identifying and integrating the appropriate role of a banking sect...
展开
This special issue, "Banking in Macroeconomic Theory and Policy," explores a problem that has occupied to varying degrees several recent generations of economists: identifying and integrating the appropriate role of a banking sector within a policy-relevant analytical framework of macroeconomic analysis. This introductory article tries to provide a context for the fascinating contributions to this issue. It reviews efforts to apply developments in bank modeling to augmenting macroeconomic models during the 1960s through 1980s, theoretical and empirical elements that led to diminished emphasis on incorporating banking into analytical macroeconomic frameworks between the 1990s and the 2007-2009 financial crisis, and recently renewed work to integrate banking sectors into modern macroeconomic models. The paper concludes by reviewing briefly the contributions contained in this special issue. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
收起
摘要 :
Many of the answers to key macroeconomic policy questions have changed markedly over the past half-century or so. While much of the analytical approach of the past remains valid, there have been important changes in the economic e...
展开
Many of the answers to key macroeconomic policy questions have changed markedly over the past half-century or so. While much of the analytical approach of the past remains valid, there have been important changes in the economic environment. Estimates of Phillips Curves are flatter than in the past; productivity growth is lower and concerns have arisen over secular stagnation; monetary policy has been affected by the zero lower bound and changes in the financial sector; activist fiscal policy seems to have fallen out of favor, and changes in the energy industry may have altered the relationship between the economy and the price of oil. The result is that some of the answers to policy issues are now different because the problems of today were not evident 50 years ago.
收起
摘要 :
This paper offers a straightforward and descriptive contribution to the recent and
busy debate on fiscal discipline made popular by the seminal Reinhart and Rogoff
(2010; Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, vol. ...
展开
This paper offers a straightforward and descriptive contribution to the recent and
busy debate on fiscal discipline made popular by the seminal Reinhart and Rogoff
(2010; Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, vol. 100, no. 2, 573–
78) paper, after policymakers have sought foundation and justification for a policy
known as austerity measures, following on from the sovereign debt crisis of 2010.
We revisit the debate on whether or not higher debt levels impede growth rates and
offer a time series perspective of a corrected data set and a more recent higherfrequency
source. We find that with further hindsight, and from a time series perspective,
there is little to no support for the view that higher levels of debt cause
reductions in economic activity. In contrast to Reinhart and Rogoff (2010), we
suggest that economic slumps tend to cause debt build-ups rather than vice versa.
收起
摘要 :
Introducing DSGE modelling into undergraduate macroeconomics would be a mistake. DSGE modelling hasn't served the profession well, and won't enhance an undergraduate curriculum that is overwhelmingly populated by students who don'...
展开
Introducing DSGE modelling into undergraduate macroeconomics would be a mistake. DSGE modelling hasn't served the profession well, and won't enhance an undergraduate curriculum that is overwhelmingly populated by students who don't intend to pursue graduate training in economics. Undergraduate macro would be better served by focusing on basic tools and concepts, and by conveying to students a sense of the economy's complexity and the challenges this presents to good policy making.
收起
摘要 :
Using Piketty and Zucman's (Q J Econ 129(3):1255-1310,2014) recently published capital share data, this paper uses structural VARs to understand the relationship between long-term interest rates, capital shares, and the distributi...
展开
Using Piketty and Zucman's (Q J Econ 129(3):1255-1310,2014) recently published capital share data, this paper uses structural VARs to understand the relationship between long-term interest rates, capital shares, and the distribution of income in the United States. The results indicate that increases in capital shares increase income inequality. Moreover, the relationship between the interest rate and capital shares is found to be negative and statistically significant. The results suggest that low long-term rates, through an equity and business investment channel, further increase the unequal distribution of income in the U.S. The results further illuminate the channels through which monetary policy can potentially affect the distribution of income.
收起
摘要 :
The effects of parameter uncertainty on optimal policy have been a matter of interest for academics, and even for some policymakers, for a long time. Two lines of literature have developed analytical results on this matter. The fi...
展开
The effects of parameter uncertainty on optimal policy have been a matter of interest for academics, and even for some policymakers, for a long time. Two lines of literature have developed analytical results on this matter. The first line uses static models and the second dynamic models. In this dynamic line most of the results are confined to models with a single state and a single control variable. In this paper we want to encourage the analysis of more general dynamic cases. To do so, the results in the dynamic line are extended from one-state and one-control finite horizon models to models with a pair of control variables. We then discuss some of the hurdles which must be surmounted for the results to be made more general and suggests some lines for further research.
收起
摘要 :
This article analyzes the trade-off between 'caution' and 'intensity' in the use of the control variable in a one-state one-control dynamic stochastic quadratic linear optimization problem with discount factor. It studies the effe...
展开
This article analyzes the trade-off between 'caution' and 'intensity' in the use of the control variable in a one-state one-control dynamic stochastic quadratic linear optimization problem with discount factor. It studies the effects that changes in uncertainty of the control parameter have on the optimal first period response of the control variable, showing that the trade-off between 'caution' and 'intensity' depends on the timing of the uncertainty. Given an increase in current uncertainty and an equal increase in future uncertainty, caution will always prevail over intensity. Moreover, the prevalence of caution will be enlarged as the increase in future uncertainty moves farther away into the future, while this prevalence will be reduced as the increase in future uncertainty expands into the future. Finally, for the infinite horizon case, caution is the optimal policy response.
收起
摘要 :
This article, which serves as an introduction to the Oxford Review of Economic Policy's issue on 'Macroeconomic Policy Coordination: Global Imbalances and Global Growth', charts the evolution of international macroeconomic policy ...
展开
This article, which serves as an introduction to the Oxford Review of Economic Policy's issue on 'Macroeconomic Policy Coordination: Global Imbalances and Global Growth', charts the evolution of international macroeconomic policy coordination from the end of the Second World War until the present day. The arrangements laid out at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 provide an intellectual framework with which to assess the evolving need for and feasibility of international coordination across three historical periods: the 'fixed-but-adjustable' exchange-rate arrangements of the Bretton Woods system; the subsequent flexible exchanges period of the 'non-system' which led into the Great Moderation; and finally the period since the global financial crisis of 2008. Increased economic integration, particularly through the capital account, combined with asymmetries in exchange-rate regimes between China and the US, have shown that reliance on the automatic adjustment mechanisms of the non-system are no longer feasible, so that a return to policy cooperation is necessary in order to rebalance the world economy and reduce the adverse spill-over impacts that uncoordinated rebalancing would entail. The article explores the nature of this coordination and provides a context for other contributions to the issue, analysing positive and normative aspects of macroeconomic policy coordination from a global perspective and from the prospective of key global players including China and the European Union.
收起
摘要 :
The existing literature on macroeconomic policy research is mainly concerned with the impact of a single monetary or fiscal policy on China's macroeconomic fiuctuations in a closed economy. However, the effect of a mix of monetary...
展开
The existing literature on macroeconomic policy research is mainly concerned with the impact of a single monetary or fiscal policy on China's macroeconomic fiuctuations in a closed economy. However, the effect of a mix of monetary and fiscal policies has been neglected. This paper addresses this issue with an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. It applies impulse-response and welfare analyses to explore the stabilization effect of various mixes of monetary and fiscal policies. The results show that the optimal monetary policy and fiscal policy mix varies in different cases. When government spending shocks happen, the aggressive fiscal policy and passive monetary policy would be the best choice. In contrast, for domestic interest rate shocks, foreign interest rate shocks, and foreign consumption shocks, the passive fiscal policy and aggressive monetary policy are more applicable. This article explains China's economic fiuctuations and highlights the importance of mix of monetary and fiscal policies in the face of different shocks.
收起
原文获取